SUNRISE — The Florida Panthers is 2-0-2 out of the gate as a popular bounce-back pick, but must now navigate an extended stretch without captain Aleksander Barkov, who will miss six to eight weeks and will not have surgery after falling awkwardly on his left leg in the second game of the season. The timeline, confirmed Tuesday, puts Barkov on track to return around the holiday season in December, recalling last season when he missed the entire year with a knee injury, and Florida has picked up three of a possible four points in two full games without him after opening with a low-event 1-0 win over Carolina.
"That's our best window," said head coach Paul Maurice. "Could be a little less, could be a little more, but we think six-to-eight is the right rehab time." The absence tests strong underlying numbers for Florida, which is second in expected goals percentage, third in Corsi percentage and has surrendered the second-fewest high-danger chances at 5-on-5. Jacob Markstrom, turning 37 in January, has a shutout and a .927 save percentage and is fifth in Goals Saved Above Expected per MoneyPuck, while Florida is tied with Carolina in times shorthanded and leads the league in power plays but has converted at just 4.3 percent.
Florida has adapted its top line to cover Barkov, one of the NHL's best two-way players. When Barkov went down midway through the game against San Jose, Lars Eller was placed between Brady Tkachuk and Sam Reinhart as a temporary bandage, then in Anaheim Brad Marchand returned at right wing with Reinhart moving to center. "Almost three moving parts," Maurice said of the new top line. "Brady's new, Sam Reinhart's playing a position he hasn't played very much recently, and Brad would tell you the game was a whole lot different last night than his last 4-5 months of practice, so we think that line will continue to get better." In their first game together the Tkachuk-Reinhart-Marchand line outshot the opposition 4-0 at 5-on-5 with a 100 percent expected goals for percentage without scoring at even strength, then outshot the opposition 4-1 with a 76.9 percent expected goals percentage in the next game while being outscored 1-0 on a play down low. "It's really a different look," Reinhart said of moving back to center. "You see the game in different areas. You pick up the puck with a little bit more speed at times, and you get it on your stick a little bit more. It's a position I've switched a lot back and forth with, and the more time you're able to play there, the more comfortable you are."
Depth has been tested further after Marchand left near the end of the second period Tuesday with a leg injury, with Frank Seravalli citing reports that Marchand was seen post-game with a knee brace and crutches ahead of an expected update Thursday. With all four games on the road, Florida has not been able to line match, and Maurice credited the line of Sam Bennett between Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe for handling top matchups. "Credit to that line on this road trip. Barkov has always been the guy who played against the other team's best, and a lot of times it's (Anton) Lundell, but it's four straight games where that line's played against the other team's best," Maurice said. "And they've come out as a plus line. That's huge for us." Cap constraints also loom, as Florida will not receive the full $10 million in relief while Barkov is on LTIR without being ruled out for the season. Under new CBA rules the maximum relief is $3,973,228, and PuckPedia lists Florida with $2.248 million in current cap space with Barkov and Jonah Gadjovich on LTIR. Activating Barkov would add that relief back and put Florida roughly $1.7 million over the cap without further moves, though the club could get under by sending Sam Lafferty and Alex Petrovic — the two call-ups when Barkov went on LTIR — back to the AHL.