NEW YORK — Patrick Mahomes and Bo Nix are on track to start Monday night when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos in the "Monday Night Football" season opener, testing how defenses game-plan for quarterbacks returning from significant injuries.
Mahomes, the two-time MVP, tore his left ACL and LCL on Dec. 14 and did not play in the preseason as he had in seven prior pro campaigns, though Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said on Tuesday there is a "Pretty good chance that Patrick will go ahead and start unless something were to come up here in the next couple days," adding "But most likely, he'll be the guy that's out there." Reid added Mahomes has "shown everything" in preseason work, running and throwing as normal albeit with the addition of a knee brace. Nix, who suffered an ankle fracture on Jan. 17 and underwent a second surgery in April to clean up bone spurs, fully participated in training camp and played in the preseason after dissolving concerns early when throwing a 48-yard pass on the run, Broncos head coach Sean Payton told Yahoo Sports. Nix had led Denver to an overtime postseason victory against the Bills before the broken ankle sidelined him for the AFC championship game.
Yahoo Sports surveyed 17 sources from 11 NFL teams during training camp — one head coach, six defensive coordinators, one defensive assistant coach and nine players, including four edge rushers, four defensive backs and one linebacker — on whether to factor the injuries into Week 1 plans. A narrow 9-8 majority argued the risk of factoring injuries outweighs the reward, while eight believed layoffs create opportunity. "I don't necessarily think that you want to overreact either way the first game of the season … " Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator Christian Parker said. "Try to see where they're at, whether it's press them more from a different side or sitting back and seeing if they're gonna run around. You might take some liberties when it comes to that. But you don't wanna get burned the hard way when they're healthier than you think." Broncos veteran edge rusher Zach Allen, who will start against Mahomes on Monday, said "The quarterback play is at probably the highest level it's ever been," adding "When they come back, it's kind of like they're back at full strength. If anything, they're rested and feel better."
Allen pointed to facing then-Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson in 2021 during Wilson's second game back from surgery to repair a ruptured tendon and fracture-dislocation in his middle finger, when Wilson threw for 207 yards against Allen's Arizona Cardinals and later posted a four-touchdown game that season, and to Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, who has been limited by injuries in three of six pro seasons but returned with two four-touchdown games in his first four back from turf toe surgery last season. Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator Aden Durde cited the "innate competitor" trait that helps quarterbacks reach the professional level, while Cowboys defensive pass game coordinator Derrick Ansley said "Most of these guys are going to play on-platform anyway," adding "Pat's always been quicker than fast, so he's still going to have that instinct. Same thing with Bo. There's no real advantage. … My opinion: Just scout it straight up and start with what they do well from past film."
The minority view sees early contact and movement cues as leverage. San Francisco defensive coordinator Raheem Morris said "Quarterbacks, particularly when they're coming off injury … want to go back to their roots," and "And when they go back to their roots, you want to be able to find those things and try to exploit things as quick as you can on defense." Defenders and coaches cited testing whether Mahomes or Nix moves more fluidly to the left or right and forcing them toward a weaker side, or sitting back to test their appetite to move outside the pocket by choice. With oddsmakers expecting both teams to produce winning seasons, Monday night will reveal whether caution or aggression proves the better bet against two quarterbacks the league banked on being ready when it set the schedule in May.