ATLANTA — The Atlanta Braves survived the only Wild Card round to go the distance, advancing to face the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium after a three-game battle with Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Philadelphia, but the extra series has left a clear strain on a pitching staff that went all in to survive. Atlanta's starting rotation answered perceptions that it is too Chris Sale-reliant, with Sale in Game 1, Tyler Mahle in Game 2 and left-hander Ray Kerr in the winner-take-all Game 3 combining to allow just four earned runs in 16 2/3 innings, with the bulk of those runs coming off Sale.
The deadline acquisition of Mahle from the San Francisco Giants has paid off beyond expectations after horrendous results with the Giants, with Atlanta helping him lean into a higher usage of his splitter, his primary off-speed pitch, to post a 1.99 ERA in nine regular-season starts. Those nine starts vaulted him to No. 2 behind Sale, a spot left vacant as Spencer Strider has never been the same following injuries and was lost for the year in June, with similar availability issues plaguing Spencer Schwellenbach. Against the Phillies, Mahle did not earn the win but delivered the best start on either side, holding Philadelphia to one run in seven innings, and now stands as the X-factor who must perform like an ace if Atlanta is to line up with the Dodgers.
Sale's own workload adds uncertainty after his aggressive usage out of the bullpen in Game 3 of the Wild Card round while Atlanta led 6-2 with only four outs to go, a move that speaks to the staff's thin depth and could affect his rhythm for a scheduled Sunday Game 2 start at Dodger Stadium. Dodger fans remember Sale's vintage complete-game shutout of Los Angeles in Atlanta during the regular season, and while he has not yet pitched against the Dodgers in the playoffs as a Brave, he was on the mound for the final pitch of the 2018 World Series at Dodger Stadium with Boston. Atlanta projects Sale for Game 2 and Mahle for Game 3 of the NLDS, but the opener remains unclear after Kerr went three-plus solid innings and Grant Holmes provided key outs in a multi-inning role in Game 3.
For the short Phillies series Atlanta carried only 11 pitchers, leaving A.J. Smith-Shawver as a candidate to start the NLDS opener or forcing a bullpen game, and even if Smith-Shawver gets the ball after working out of the bullpen near the end of the regular season it would be on a short leash. Manager Walt Weiss will speak this afternoon and may announce the starter for tomorrow, with the current guess being another lefty opener followed by Holmes, who threw just two innings on 28 pitches last night. With setup man Didier Fuentes — the most utilized setup man who got the ball in all three games against Philadelphia — heavily worked and Games 2 and 3 already lined up, the opener shapes as Atlanta's most challenging game of the series, a spot where those accustomed to the Dave Roberts method would not be surprised to see an early punt.
The bullpen shows the same depth contrast. Robert Suárez's recent return from injury adds backend help, but the circle of trust remains small and vulnerable to the long ball, as Dylan Lee and Fuentes were responsible for the loss in Game 2 after Lee gave up two solo home runs to Harper and Schwarber. Atlanta finished fourth in ERA during the regular season but just 19th in HR/9, and while Raisel Iglesias — already a very good closer in his time with the Reds and Angels — has raised his game with Atlanta to earn his second All-Star nod, the comparison with Los Angeles tilts sharply when depth enters the conversation. The matchup follows Atlanta's three-game Wild Card survival against Philadelphia and renews a postseason rivalry at Dodger Stadium.