ST. PETERSBURG — There has never been a batting title race quite like the one unfolding in the American League, and with under three weeks to go it could come down to the wire as the Houston Astros visit the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Entering play on Saturday, Houston slugger and AL MVP candidate Yordan Alvarez leads at .310, just four points ahead of Rays left fielder Chandler Simpson at .306, despite Simpson carrying a .691 OPS. There has never been a batting champion in either league to finish a season with an OPS below .700.
The stylistic contrast is stark. Alvarez ranks 17th in MLB with a 76.2 mph average swing speed, owns an MLB-best .443 expected weighted on-base average and an MLB-leading .642 expected slugging percentage, and has produced a Major League-high 66 barrels while hitting a career-high 38 home runs this season and 208 for his career. Simpson ranks 202nd of 204 qualified batters in swing speed — only Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan are slower — sits 242nd of 244 with a .264 xwOBA and 241st with a .296 expected slugging percentage, and is the only qualified hitter without a barrel this season with zero career homers in 937 at-bats. Alvarez has hit 30% of his balls in play on the ground; Simpson's ground-ball rate is more than twice that at 60.9%.
Simpson closes the gap by putting the ball in play on 87% of his plate appearances and maximizing soft contact with a 41.8% squared-up rate, second only to Mookie Betts in MLB. Elite speed does the rest. Of his 160 hits, 88% have been singles and 23% have been infield hits, including an MLB-leading 37 infield hits with 14 bunt singles, fueled by a 29.5 feet/second average sprint speed. By contrast, 43% of Alvarez's 162 hits have gone for extra bases. That speed shows in expected batting average: Alvarez's actual average sits just 10 points above his .320 xBA on quality of contact, while Simpson entered Friday at +49 above his xBA, the largest differential in the Majors. "Continuing to stay within myself, know my toolset," Simpson said. "Continue to use the big part of the field, and just take it one pitch at a time."
The profile is distinct even from other contact hitters — current MLB batting average leader Arraez carries a below-average sprint speed and just a 37% ground-ball rate. Simpson's Rays teammate Yandy Díaz lurks at .303, but if Simpson were to win with an OPS still below .700 he would become the first batting champion ever to do so. If Alvarez holds on, he remains in pursuit of the second Triple Crown season in this century and only the second in nearly 60 years.